My favorite minor story line this season is that the Cubs are paying about $40 million to replace Heyward with Bellinger, and the Dodgers are paying about $0 to replace Bellinger with Heyward. Jason Heyward posts cryptic Instagram message about Cubs future - MSN His 23 percent infield/fly ball rate is third-highest in the majors, trailing only Corey Patterson and Mark Trumbo. Service Time : Reported as the pre-2022 value. Heyward made just one out on an attempted advance in 19 tries. Heyward, a .211-hitter in 2021 and 2022, made significant swing changes over the winter. The lowest member of the group, Willie Randolph, still averaged more than three wins per season. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors 5 seed Indiana State Sycamores (22-11, 13-7 MVC) in the MVC Tournament Saturday at Enterprise Center, beginning at 3:30 PM on CBS Sports Network. Ground balls are a function of the swings, and consider Xander Bogaerts. Heyward managed to nab nine bases in 11 tries last year, and Bill James projects hell have 14 SB in 2012. Thats just how it goes. Efficiency. Jason Heyward Minor & Fall Leagues Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. And then well see if he wants to stay on the same course. Even with the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders, Heyward was likely the victim of some bad bounces. Some call it a sweeper. Swinging at more off-the-plate pitches, hitting the ball up the elevator shaft, smacking ground balls like a slap-hitting middle infielder none of these are good things. Gavin Lux is likely . Oliver: .273/.367/.475, 19 HR So how did he end up with some of the best non-stolen-base baserunning numbers in the game? $8? Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 21 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves Alan Trejo will likely move into the second base spot with Brendan Rodgers on the IL. Gomber is working on a two-seam, sinking fastball that he hopes will work at altitude. For comparisons sake, the average age for hitters in the Low-A South Atlantic League (which Heyward aced at 18) was 21.4 in 2011. That is a major boost for lefty pull hitters like Soto (who hit 38.1 percent of his balls in play to the right field side last season, per Fangraphs). Notes: PitchCom, Jason Heyward, cold weather Dodgers pitchers are hesitant to use the PitchCom device to call their own pitches. A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. In the *other* MVP debate, Miguel Cabrera represented, perhaps, a belief in the older-school stats, those three fetishized numbers that have been in the newspapers since the games inception. Jason Heyward - Play Logs - 2022 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball Heyward might not be a burner, but he has posted average-ish Speed Scores so far and has rated as an above-average base runner overall. Are the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders the result of his shoulder ailment, or normal growing pains for a player who wont turn 22 until August? Maybe hed find a different path to a familiar destination. Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Attempting to measure defense with advanced statistics like UZR and DRS has its critics, and attempting to place a value on it can be difficult. Gotta elevate if youre going to be pull-focused. What follows is an attempt to find similar players to Heyward using various methods: WAR, offense, defense, and a hybrid of offense and defense. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. . Now, they are tasked with turning things around this year, in what should be a competitive National League once again. These were the players remaining. Jason Heyward is good | The Hardball Times - tht.fangraphs.com and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. But the power was largely absent. He clobbered 27 homers when he was 22. That search reveals the following players. No matter which group you look at, he is likely to be a productive player at age 30. Heyward improved slightly in the years to come but still struggled to get back to the form he showed prior to coming to Chicago. The grounders are just about all pulled. The 19-year old was a first round pick in 2007 and has wasted no time The 19-year old was a first round pick in 2007 and has wasted no time establishing himself as a premier outfielder Its ever so early, but it seems like he could be working on that. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as more than adequate in the field at center. Jason Heyward, who was instrumental in the lore of the infamous Game 7 rain delay, was once the thorn in the side of fans looking for a scapegoat to blame for the club's lack of spending. After the home run, back in the zone with offspeed pitches. Every other player produced at an incredibly high level from age 26 to age 35, maintaining their hitting line from 26 to 35 that they had in their early 20s. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. And he continued to hit far too many ground balls (nearly 54 percent of the time he put it in play), limiting his power output (.162 ISO). All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Jason Heyward Contract Details, Salaries, & Earnings | Spotrac Hes still really young Even with a bum shoulder, Heyward has managed to draw a decent amount of walks and hit for some power. . and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Our premise is that their bad (or At an age when most players are chasing a trip to Omaha or cutting their teeth in Low Class-A, Jason Heyward crushed major league pitching in 2010. He has slugged eight homers in 599 plate appearances as a big leaguer. Andy Pages emerging, however, could free Taylor up for the infield (we'll talk about him more in a bit). Double-digit steals is a nice perk for a guy with potentially elite OBP and power numbers. by Handedness, swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. Its easy to lose sight of Heywards age, considering that he has been in the majors for two years, stands 6-foot-5, 240 pounds and could probably grow a beard by noon if he shaved right now. 1 seed Bradley Braves (24-8, 16-4 MVC) square off against the No. Contracts matter Miller is entering his first year of arbitration while Heyward is now a FA. He hit 27 home runs in 2012, but recorded just 13 of them this year along with an isolated slugging percentage of .146, essentially league average. Nick Frasso, who had a 1.83 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 54 innings last season, was acquired from the Blue Jays in . He clearly can the man stands 65. Signup . The last qualifier hurt more than helped Heyward, as Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre were removed from the list. Bill James He has played in Major League Baseball (MLB) for the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs. Heaney added that, in the regular season, he probably wouldnt have thrown that pitch in that situation. As such, its hard to decide what to make of Heywards 2014 season, in which he finished 34th among outfielders in Zach Sanders rankings, as he made strides as a contact hitter while taking a step back in the power department. Heyward is coming off his age-21 season, having just turned 22 this past August. Heywards small sample of air balls also supports this. Jason Heyward - Wikipedia Heyward is actually the most accomplished offensive player in the group due to being worth more than 20 runs above average on the bases, but strictly as a hitter, these are the players with similar profiles. Regarding the second concern, I attempted to isolate only very good fielding outfielders. Theres no disputing that Heyward was frustrating to watch at times in 2011. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Andrew Heaney is fine with throwing meatballs. Heyward Still Part of Chicago, Senga's Physical, Steele's Approach, Farm System, and Other Cubs Bullets from . If Heyward were coming off a .270/.365/.445-type season instead, you can bet he wouldnt be getting drafted behind guys like Corey Hart and Jayson Werth. Contract: 8 yr, $184M (2016-23) AAV: $23.0M. In particular, Heyward has a .188 BABIP on ground balls. 12 years and 0 . With an acknowledgment to the variance in sample size, we can compare the pitch locations of his 2014 against his first four big league seasons: As you might have guessed, thats bad news for Heyward, who, like many left-handed hitters, does his best work when hes able to feast on balls down and in. This spring, Heyward has hit 17 grounders, and hes pulled all but one of them. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. For my ease, I took five-year averages for both WAR and the cost of a win when calculating the total. At the very least, we should expect Heywards average over the rest of the season to climb considerably. Jason Heyward LAD OF L Born: 08/09/1989 Age: 33 FanGraphs Player Page Auctions are not allowed at this time On MLB 40-man: NO Acquired: Free Agent (CHC) Dec'22 Positions OF Overall Last 10. Heyward remains a tempting upside guy on draft day, but its hard to bid on him too far beyond the price tag of a No. The Chicago Cubs already boasted one of the best young . Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Jason Heyward - Bleacher Report There are two graphs below estimating the value of Heywards comps over the next ten years. The shift movement had already produced some . The ZiPS top prospect list (ranking on the basis of minor league stats and player comps - no scouting) is going to make you sad, because outfield prospect Alexander Canario shows up at number 33. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Hitters might not want to hear this, but Phillies ace Zack Wheeler just added another pitch to his arsenal. So what is his value in an auction re-draft league? The team is confident in . Major League Leaderboards 2015 Outfielders Fielding Statistics The fact that he gets value from non-traditional means is also not a brain buster. by Retrosheet. Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards. Especially because of the accidental report that floated this week about Canario already being back on the field doing baseball work (he's not; still way too early for . Dodgers trade rumors: Isiah Kiner-Falefa & Tim Anderson seem unlikely All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Hitters think about driving the ball in the air up the middle or to the pull side, and then when the contact isnt just right, a grounder gets yanked. Just how healthy is Heyward? Jeff Zimmerman found that speedy players, like Heyward, age better than the rest of the baseball population. He homered off former Dodger Andrew Heaney in Wednesdays second inning. Heres a bomb to right. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. SUMMARY by Retrosheet. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, I cant wait to see how this turns out. Karl, a journalist living in Washington, D.C., learned about life's disappointments by following the Mets beginning at a young age. sent RF Jason Heyward on a rehab assignment to Gwinnett Braves. With Taylor refocusing on the infield, Roberts suggested he would be less likely to fill the void at center field. FanGraphs Mugs. Granted, we cant just assume that Heyward will stay healthy from here on out (he had a thumb injury as a rookie and had some minor hip and shin ailments before that), but those are conservative projections if he does come to camp with a mended shoulder. Crawford debuted young, but due to a team-friendly contract, he did not become a free agent until after his age-28 season, three years older than Heyward. Their average WAR is below. But theres real doubt about his ability to deliver even 15 home runs or produce high amounts of runs and RBIs in that lineup, regardless of where he hits. Historically, Heyward has pulled just over half his grounders. All this before you look at his 11 home runs, easily a career low, less than the 14 he put up in two separate seasons when he averaged just 448 plate appearances. Last year he hit for almost zero power, and his grounder pull rate went from 68% to 43%. Examining The Cubs' Fifth Starter Options from MLBTradeRumors.com at 2/22/2023 4:39:00 AM. Latest News/Blog Posts about Jason Heyward. His expected BABIP (xBABIP), which is based on home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, and batted ball data, was about .315. by Handedness. Jason Heyward LAD OF L Born: 08/09/1989 Age: 33 FanGraphs Player Page Auctions are not allowed at this time On MLB 40-man: NO Acquired: Free Agent (CHC) Dec'22 Positions OF Overall Last 10 All. Heywards infield hit rate is three percent, which is in the same range as David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero and Billy Butler, guys whose times to first base are measured with sun dials instead of stop watches. Instead, Heyward will step into the box for his first post-All-Star at-bat with a .226/.315/.404 triple-slash. Tony Conigliaro was unfortunately never the same after a pitch permanently injured him, while other players like Ruben Sierra and Carlos Baerga simply did not produce despite opportunities. The first graph is conservative, beginning the estimation of a cost of a win at $7 million with inflation set at five percent per year (although salaries have been rising at a rate greater than that amount in recent seasons and are up about 50% from half a dozen seasons ago). This production is, quite frankly, incredible. . With Gavin Lux out for the season, Dodgers plot avenues to contend once If Heyward had one or two games where he hit everything the other way, that would make this look way different, and thats why its too early to say anything. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). Good defensive outfielders might simply be a smaller subset of that group overall. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Jason Heyward Powers Down | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball That should tell you all you need to know about the Blue Jays plans for their fourth outfield spot, and this assignment is something he plans to grab with both hands. While hes never going to be a big stolen base threat, hes a quality athlete for a power forward-sized corner outfielder. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Sadly, the only skill that Heyward hasnt displayed during his bright, brief career is health. The above comparison paints an incredibly optimistic and rosy view of Heywards future, but there is some evidence to suggest that phenoms like Heyward age better than the rest of the population. Jason Heyward, The Next Great Free Agent | FanGraphs Membership All of this he managed while only stealing 21 bases. Ellsbury, now 32, has been worth 21 wins since turning 26 while Crawford, 34, has been worth 22 wins over the last eight seasons. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Higgins over one inning. Using a similar exercise, I found only 28 players with at least 25 fWAR and bWAR (FanGraphs WAR and Baseball Reference WAR, respectively) since the end of World War II. Obviously, Heyward is nowhere near as good as Rodriguez was then, but the argument for blowing the budget to sign him is a similar one. Greatest Careers Through Age 25 Since World War II, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 30, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 35, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps Through Age 25, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps Through Age 26, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35. But, man oh man, do people ever love to talk about Jason Heyward not hitting for enough power. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. by Retrosheet. His rookie year was off-the-charts good Heyward is not Trout-level amazing, but he has been incredibly productive through his age-25 season. Heyward did it all offensively as a rookie: he showed superb plate discipline (a 14.6% walk rate), hit for power (a .179 Isolated Power) and didnt punch out at an exorbitant rate (20.5 K%). Its not even clear this would be a good thing. It doesnt matter that Heyward has still been productive; he looks like he should be a beast of a hitter, so its odd to see him hit singles and doubles. P. J. Higgins - Wikipedia FanGraphs gives fans, front offices a look at the sport's evolution FanGraphs crowdsourcing puts Heywards predicted contract at eight years and $184 million while Dave Cameron predicted a return to the Cardinals on a nine-year, $195 million contract with an opt-out after four years, making the value of the contract in excess of $200 million. The line was rough from lefty starter Austin Gomber on Tuesday against the Rangers four runs on five hits, including a Clint Frazier home run, while recording two outs. The way hitters hit the ball is a reflection of the swing and the approach, and so look at what you see above. This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts * as the source of default lineups. How much will he be worth? The 2023 series on team offense continues with the New York Yankees. Only Al Kaline, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey, Jr., and Alex Rodriguez were within 15 runs on defense and ahead of him on offense. Eno, how do you have the nerve to put up a Jason Heyward article before an article about Chone Figgins release? If we pretend we know nothing about Heywards defense, we can come up with a set of comps based solely on his hitting, even removing his value on the basepaths. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Jason Heyward as Mike Trout | FanGraphs Baseball To bring this all back: There are very early signs that Jason Heyward is focusing more on the pull half of the field. Heywards value also wasnt helped by a Braves lineup that finished among baseballs worst in wOBA and runs scored, and if the Braves were to move Evan Gattis this winter to make room for Christian Bethancourt, the lineup likely would only be weaker in 2015. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks game thread - True Blue LA Jason Heyward opens baseball academy in Chicago from TrueBlueLA.com at 2/4/2023 5:04:00 AM. Gallo got the upper hand on the Red Sox in his second inning at-bat, drawing a walk to nullify Boston's shift. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Thats still well above-average, but chasing more junk off the plate certainly isnt a positive sign. Follow/harass him on Twitter @Karl_de_Vries. But in the previous five years, he had bounced between eight different organizations, unable to find his footing in the majors before an opportunity arose with the Dodgers. Technically, the entire 1927 Yankees couldnt legally buy a beer, either. Can you imagine what he would have batted if he had been in the Carolina League or the Pac-12 over the past couple of years? All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, That was awesome, Kapler said. Effectively Wild Episode 87: Baseball and the BCS/Halladay vs. Lee/Does the Success Cycle Still Exist? Braves news: Surprise candidate emerges for potential rotation spot All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Cavan Biggio will play half his games in the outfield. Jason Heyward Positions: Rightfielder, Centerfielder and Leftfielder Bats: Left Throws: Left 6-5 , 240lb (196cm, 108kg) Born: August 9, 1989 (Age: 33-206d) in Ridgewood, NJ us More bio, uniform, draft, salary info 1x All-Star 2016 World Series 5x Gold Glove Wilson Overall Def Player 22 22 22 Become a Stathead & surf this site ad-free. Adding in 23 steals on 26 attempts and the rest of his baserunning, Heywards 22 runs above average on offense placed him within the top quarter of qualified hitters. So I was like, Im just gonna kind of throw it at him down the middle. And he hit it out. Rojas, a 34-year-old, glove-first veteran, was acquired in the winter to aid the groups depth. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Just a couple years ago, it was Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton that were tearing up baseball, looking like an unprecedented pair of rookie talents ready to continue on into the stratosphere together. The numbers may seem outrageous, but MLB revenues have been rising at very high rates, and there is so rarely a player of Heywards caliber and age that the market will likely have a difficult time finding a consensus. On June 3, Higgins recorded his first major league hit, . Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. Jason Heyward is Coming Around | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball Where does all this leave the J-Hey Kid? It may sound strange, but in a way Heywards 2011 season is actually a testament to his supreme ability. Donate to FanGraphs. Earlier this week, August Fagerstrom took a look at recent seasons authored first of Mike Trout and then of Clayton Kershaw and compared them to the greatest peaks of all time. The Chicago Cubs outfielder hit a third of batted balls in play in the air in 2016, but saw his slugging percentage dip to a career-low (.325) due to his exit velocity . All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. 3 outfielder who has yet to prove hes a reliable high-end fantasy option. That level of production would justify a $200 million contract based on the first five years alone. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. The other groups, with players similar to some aspect of Heywards game, but inferior in other ways, make Heyward a high-quality player, one perhaps worthy of a $200 million contract, but not a Hall of Famer. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Searching again for players from 1960 to 2007, limiting those players through age-25 within 20% of Heywards PAs, but instead of using WAR, look at players with a wRC+ between 110 and 125 and within 15 points of Heywards 121 wRC+ at age 25.