2016 bellwether counties

Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. 2020 Election (1210) It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. Team up with others in your region, and help out by It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? Trump won the other 18 counties. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. Still, the state's worth watching. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". Trump County, USA - POLITICO Magazine Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. We believe this was a mistake. Here's why. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. 7. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. Have you looked at the results of these counties? Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". This county voted with the popular vote each time. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. Nobody forgot about politics.". Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. (subject to censorship). In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. (Sorry, not sorry.) Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. Read about our approach to external linking. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. hide caption. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties - Election Fraud at a Glance For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. TIP: But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. Lets find a coin, and flip it. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. Bellwether - Wikipedia Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. But it's still indicative of widespread support. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. So, where are the bellwether counties? After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election - WSJ The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. Yes, another Hillsborough! So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state.

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